Week 2 Update + Multiple Contract Unloads

The last two weeks The D1 Docket has been busy in the FOIA kitchen and things are starting to come out of the oven at a healthy rate. Kansas joined fellow Big XII member West Virginia on the other side to reveal a typically challenging schedule for the Jayhawks.

Along with the mainstay season opener in the Champions Classic, this year facing Michigan State, Kansas will face 4 other power conference teams with at least two of those games, Colorado and St. John’s, on the road. Kansas and Missouri rekindle their rivalry for the first time since Missouri left the Big XII in 2012 on December 11^th. Kansas opponent and site has yet to be determined for the Big XII-SEC Challenge.

Harvard was lined-up to play at Allen Fieldhouse last season before the Ivy League cancelled the 2020-21 Athletics’ season but will now play that game in late December. Kansas will see if it can ward off Stephen F. Austin’s reputation as giant killer as the last home game before Christmas. It looks like UTEP was able to negotiate a semi-neutral site game this season as part of their agreement to play Kansas during the make-up game week in March, the Miners and Jayhawks will play in Kansas City on December 7^th.

Along with an appearance in the ESPN Events Invitational, Kansas will have every opportunity to build a resume worthy of a high seed in the non-conference season.

In stark contrast to Kansas’s schedule is Idaho State’s slate of games so far. The Bengals are signed up for five guarantee games on the road, collecting $385,000 in guarantees along the way, such as life in the Big XII

Idaho State Non-Conference Game Contract Details
Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 9th	Eastern Oregon (Non-DI)	$3,000 Guarantee
Nov 12th	@ Pepperdine	$60,000 Guarantee
Nov 14th	@ Seattle	$80,000 Guarantee
Nov 19th	@ Nebraska	$90,000 Guarantee
Nov 27th or Nov 28th	@ Air Force	$67,500 Guarantee
Dec 8th	@ California	$87,500 Guarantee
Dec 18th	Bethesda (Non-DI)	$3,000 Guarantee

 Up next are Sun Belt Conference and in-state rivals Georgia Southern and Georgia State. The Eagles do not have many games on the books just yet but will be heading to the Bronx for a match-up with Fordham.

*The contract for the Fordham game was signed in 2019, with Fordham's participation in an event at Madison Square Garden that day it is apparent the terms of that initial deal have been changed or terminated. Notices of cancellation were also requested but none were provided.

Georgia Southern Non-Conference Game Contract Details
Date	Opponent	Terms
TBD	@ Fordham	$80,000 Guarantee
Dec 15th	@ Campbell	First game of Home & Home

 Georgia State has a few more games on the books, with the only home game secured so far being a return game from Mercer.

Georgia State Non-Conference Game Contract Details
Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 16th	@ Richmond	$75,000 Guarantee
Nov 20th	vs. TBD (High Point, NC)	Multi-Team Exempt Event
Nov 21st	vs. TBD (High Point, NC)
Dec 4th	Mercer	Fourth game of 4-year series
Dec 14th	@ Mississippi State	$70,000 Guarantee
Dec 21st	@ Georgia Tech	Second game of 3-year series

 Georgia State will make rounds and collect checks from NCAA tournament contenders Mississippi State and Richmond. The Panthers will go into the Christmas break by returning to the scene of their 4OT victory over cross-town rivals Georgia Tech on opening night of last season. This is the 2^nd of 3 games in the series, the finale taking place at Georgia State during the 2022-23 season.

The Panthers visit High Point for an Exempt event organized by Gazelle Group. Aside from Georgia State and the hosts, High Point, a source has confirmed to The D1 Docket that the other participants are slated to be Howard and William & Mary.

William & Mary will play in above mentioned event, before visiting Navy the first weekend of December. The gameday will be determined by whether or not Navy earns the right to host the AAC Championship Game on December 4^th.

William & Mary Non-Conference Game Contract Details
Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 20th	vs. TBD (High Point, NC)	Multi-Team Exempt Event
Nov 21st	vs. TBD (High Point, NC)
Dec 4th or Dec 5th	@ Navy	First game of Home & Home
TBD	Fairfield	2nd game of Home & Home
TBD	@ Richmond	First game of 4-year series

 Florida Atlantic has nearly completed their non-conference slate, including a return game from Miami-FL and hosting a 3-game MTE in Boca Raton.

The Owls were quick to answer the phone and hit the road last season, pivoting three 11^th hour scheduling additions into home games during the 2021-22 season.

Florida Atlantic Non-Conference Game Contract Details
Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 10th	@ New Mexico	$70,000 Guarantee
Nov 16th	Miami-FL	Second game of Home & Home
Nov 19th	North Dakota/UT-Martin/Troy	Multi-Team Exempt Event, $48,000 total in guarantees
Nov 20th	North Dakota/UT-Martin/Troy
Nov 21st	North Dakota/UT-Martin/Troy
TBD	vs Florida Gulf Coast	Third game of 4-year series
TBD	James Madison	Second game of Home & Home
TBD	Stetson	Second game of Home & Home
TBD	North Florida	Second game of Home & Home

 The Maine Black Bears will also be filling the schedule with guarantee games, collecting $315,000 for four games currently secured. The games against Virginia Tech and Colorado were originally scheduled for last season but the teams were able to agree to terms for rescheduling the games.

Maine Non-Conference Game Contract Details
Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 9th	@ Virginia Tech	$85,000 Guarantee
Nov 12th	Maine-Farmington (Non-DI)	N/A
Nov 15th	@ Colorado	$85,000 Guarantee
Nov 19th	Maine-Fort Kent	N/A
Nov 27th	@ Bradley	$75,000 Guarantee
Dec 29th	@ Rutgers	$70,000 Guarantee

 

Until next time, this is Charles from The D1 Docket signing off…

Week 1 Update + Morgan State & Radford 2021 Contract Unloads

West Virginia broke the seal on the release of 2021-22 non-conference schedules last week. It was no surprise that the Mountaineers were first, once again, as they have been consistently among those quick to finish and announce their scheduling business. At just 159 days prior to opening day this is the latest a non-conference schedule has been released since The Docket began tracking this information in 2014. With the obvious omission of 2020, an average north of 8 teams would be expected to have released their schedule at this point in any given offseason. Coaches are cautiously navigating the wake of the 2020 fiasco of rescheduled games, deflated guarantee market and the waning uncertainty as COVID case numbers continue their sharp decrease in the United States.

Early efforts to obtain contracts came up mostly dry but as the calendar has rolled over into June The Docket is back on the scent for freshly signed contracts. 

Two early responses are from Morgan State and Radford.

Morgan State had a strong season, finishing with a KenPom rank of 223, 2nd in the MEAC and falling 1 game short of an NCAA Tournament bid by losing to Norfolk State in the MEAC Championship Game.

Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 14th	At George Mason	Up to $60,000 Guarantee
Nov 18th	At Seattle	$75,000 Guarantee
Nov 20th	At Portland	$65,000 Guarantee
Dec 29th	At Kansas State	$75,000 Guarantee

The Bears have four games on the books so far, including an early season trip to the west coast. Morgan State still has plenty of room to add games, including an exempt event, as the MEAC schedule will likely be whittled down to just 14 games following the departures of Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M and North Carolina A&T.

Radford, on the other hand, has yet to make plans to stray to far from home in lining up seven non-conference games so far.

Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 12th	At Virginia	Up to $80,000 Guarantee
Nov 15th	At Virginia Tech	$60,000 Guarantee
Nov 19th	At Furman	$10,000 Guarantee
Nov 20th	Vs. Navy (Greenville, SC)
Nov 28th	Eastern Kentucky	Return game at EKU, 2022-23
Dec 4th	At West Virginia	Up to $85,000 Guarantee
Dec 20th	At Akron	Up to $65,000

The Highlanders will collect checks from in-commonwealth ACC foes Virginia and Virginia Tech before playing in a two-game MTE hosted by Furman. The only home game so far is the opening of a home and home with Eastern Kentucky but expect some non-D1 games to fill in much of their remaining schedule. These seven games plus the 18-game Big South slate gives Radford up to five more games to schedule.

Very interesting that several contracts still include clauses which pro-rate the guarantee fee based on allowable attendance. While COVID-19 cases are on the decline there is still enough uncertainty that the programs writing the checks are still protecting themselves financially. 

Hopefully the 2nd week of June has some more activity, both in press releases and public record responses. Until next time, this is The D1 Docket signing off..

Contract Unload: Iowa 2021

The D1 Docket has recently obtained men's basketball game contracts from the University of Iowa, below are the games Iowa has agreed to play in per these contracts.

Date	Opponent	Terms
November 9th	Longwood	$100,000 Guarantee
November 16th	NC Central	MTE, $195,000 total buy-in
November 18th	Alabama State	MTE, $195,000 total buy-in
December 9th	at Iowa State	Rivalry Series

December 21st

Southeastern Louisiana

$95,000 Guarantee

These contracts lock the Hawkeyes into five non-conference games for the 2021-22 season, presumed participation in the Gavitt Tip-Off Games (cancelled in 2020) and the ACC-B1G Challenge would raise the total to 7 games. The Big Ten plays a 20-game conference scheduling allowing for a team in an exempt event to play a total 11 non-conference games, giving Iowa up to four more games to schedule.

Looking forward Iowa has a handful of games locked into in upcoming seasons, shown below.

Date	Opponent	Terms
Nov 17-22th, 2022	TBD	MTE, $90,000 Guarantee
Nov 25th, 2022	TBD (Niceville, FL)	Emerald Coast Classic
Nov 26th, 2022	TBD (Niceville, FL)	Emerald Coast Classic
Dec 8th, 2022	at Iowa State	Rivalry Series
Dec 7th, 2023	Iowa State	Rivalry Series

Fixing the Forty-Niners

 It is an offseason that calls for going back to the drawing board for Coach Ron Sanchez which, due to contract extensions signed the two previous off-seasons, is very much secure in his position as Head Coach of the Charlotte 49ers. In his three seasons Charlotte has had some ups and downs but things really started to snowball in disastrous fashion as the 2020-21 season wound down, seeing the Niners lose their final nine games in the purgatory of mediocrity known as Conference-USA.

Three years into Sanchez's tenure we have yet to see the offense click on a regular basis. After slugging through his first season with a misfit roster of Mark Price recruits and a scrambled debut recruiting class, the offense has yet to break out of the bottom third of Division 1 in terms of Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (per KenPom). It is my opinion that this inability to get the offense into second gear is a matter of poorly attempting to fit a square beg into a round hole.

Coach Kotie Kimble joined the Niners after eight seasons on the bench at William & Mary, the final five of which featured a Tribe team with an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency ranked no worse than 52nd. These were teams that scored with relative ease, being in the Top 10 for Effective FG% in three seasons. These teams also played with a bit of pace. They were no Marshall, or The Citadel, but they could not be accused of slowing the game down. The Tribe ranged from 178th to 69th in offensive possession length from 2013 to 2018, with only one season outside the Top 120. This is in stark contrast to Charlotte's offense, which's shortest average offensive possession length ranked them only 310th. 

Now, I know what you must be thinking, those William & Mary teams probably generated a lot of fast break opportunities driving that number down, but that is contrary to the statistics. The Tribe ranged from the Steal % of 6.5 to 9.5, the latter giving them a rank of 156th. While the Niners managed to post a Steal % of 11.3, 30th best in 2019-20, they still only managed an average possession length of 18.5 seconds, nearly two seconds slower than the slowest output from the Tribe after the institution of the 30 second shot clock. 

The fact of the matter is the Tribe ran a decisive, well paced, but patient, offense that often got high quality shots early in the shot-clock. If this offense did not get the look it wanted, it tried to get another look because it had the time to do so. They kept their turnovers down because the offense was rarely in a position where it needed to force the ball into a place where it could not fit. The Tribe ranked between 38th and 90th in Turnover %, and the year in which they ranked the lowest, the offense achieved it's highest ranking with the 27th ranked Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. A sign that the offense hit the pedal a little harder which may have led to more turnovers, but also led to higher quality shots more often than not. In contrast, while also boasting one of the slowest tempos in Divsion 1, Charlotte has an awful record of coughing the ball-up, displaying a Turnover % greater than 20.0 each of Sanchez's tenure.

One thing those William & Mary teams did have in common with the Niners is that neither team showed much concern for getting offensive rebounds. The Tribe peaked with a rank of 289th in Offensive Reb % in those final five seasons while the Niners have peaked with a ranking of 322nd. A tenant of Tony Bennett's pack-line defense is setting up the defense early and making life difficult for the opponent. The success William & Mary had scoring efficiently without depending on second-chance points shows that the philosophy can succeed at the mid-major level.

From an outsider's perspective it is clear that Sanchez wants to run a slow-paced game, but conforming Kimble's offensive philosophy to do so has resulted in an offense that holds the ball for 15-20 seconds before running any offensive sets, this often leads to a mad scramble to find any open shot if the first look is not there. This leads to bad, contested shots, this leads to turnovers, this leads uncontested looks for the opponent, and most importantly this leads to losing games. It's my conclusion that the best thing that Sanchez can do for this team is to hand the reigns of the offense completely over to Kimble, allowing Sanchez to focus solely on the defense. 

To play a bit of a numbers game, I have taken the William & Mary's offensive production relative to the Division 1 average over the 2013-18 seasons, which on average had an efficiency 108.25% of the D1 Average, then converted it over to a relative value for the 2019-20 season (due to the circumstances of the 2020-21 season featuring many teams playing partial or no schedules) plus a little boost for increased fast break chances generated by a well operated pack-line defense. I paired that generated value with Charlotte's defensive efficiency from the 2019-20 season, not the highest bar to set the sights on, but one that we know is attainable. What we end up with is a team that would wield a Top 40 Offense and the 84th ranked defense. A team with that profile would have slotted in 52nd in the 2020 KenPom rankings, ahead of teams like Connecticut, Memphis, Texas, Davidson and UCLA.  That is my established ceiling for Ron Sanchez. He has the toolbox to meet that ceiling, it's now up to him whether or not he can.

Contract Unload: Utah State

The Docket has obtained contracts from Utah State University. Below are the games that Utah State has agreed to play in per these contracts. All games reported have had contracts signed by all parties, but are still subject to being amended at the discretion of both parties.

Date	Opponent	Terms
November 10th	UC IRVINE	$90,000 Guarantee
November 18th	TBD (Conway, SC; Myrtle Beach Inv)
November 19th	TBD (Conway, SC; Myrtle Beach Inv)
November 21st	TBD (Conway, SC; Myrtle Beach Inv)
November 27th	NEW ORLEANS	$90,000 Guarantee
December 5th	BYU	5-year Series
December 12th	SAINT MARY’S	Home & Home
December 15th	DIXIE STATE	$60,000 Guarantee
December 18th	@ WEBER STATE	6-year Home & Home
December 21st	Mississippi State (Panama City, FL	$10,000 Entry Fee

Utah State is currently locked into 10 non-conference games, including the Myrtle Beach Invitational, an exempt event. Utah State is a member of the Mountain West Conference with a league slate of 18 games in 2020-21. They are locked into 28 of the 31 games they are eligible to compete in this season.

This Month in Non-Conference Scheduling (June 2020)

Schedules Released This Through June

June 3rd:
Iowa State

June 3rd:
Ole Miss

June 11th:
Marquette

June 15th:
Nebraska

June 23rd:
Hawaii
Old Dominion

June 29th:
James Madison

Event Schedules Released Through May

Hall of Fame Tip-Off (Marquette, Minnesota, Rhode Island, UCF)
Emerald Coast Classic (Florida, Illinois, Iowa State, Oregon)
Global Sports Invitational (SMU, Georgia, Wofford, Charleston Southern)

Rainbow Classic (Hawaii, San Diego, Washington)

Scheduling News:

This offseason in particular has proven tough for teams in the market for guarantee games. The possibility of remote learning, reduced enrollment and limited game attendance has teams working harder to balance their budget with the threat of funding shortfalls looming overhead. Teams higher up the pecking order are seeking more guarantee checks than normal, saturating the market. Several coaches that have communicated with me are all looking for the same thing, guarantee games, and many of these coaches lead teams in contention to win their leagues or even make a case for at-large bids.

Old Dominion has released their C-USA league schedule, confirming that the flex-scheduling experiment has come to a conclusion. The idea was bought into after C-USA had three KenPom Top 65 teams in 2018 but received no-at large bids. In the two seasons of flex-scheduling C-USA had just one total KenPom Top 75 teams. The system was never expected to yield results if the quality of the teams were not at-large caliber.

Five Best Games

Ole Miss at Dayton: The Flyers might not be in contention for a 1-seed in 2021, but they will still be favored to make the NCAA tournament. Ole Miss had a surprisingly strong first year under Kermit Davis but came back to earth in year two. If Ole Miss makes a leap back to form this year they could put a scare in Dayton, but their home court will give them an edge.

Florida vs Illinois: Both of these programs are at a crossroads. In Illinois, Brad Underwood had broken through in his third season and had the Illini on track for their first NCAA Tournament in 7 seasons. Meanwhile in Gator Country fans are growing impatient with Mike White. After making the Elite 8 in his second season White has yet to break through to the second weekend of the tournament, a justifiably high standard considering Florida's success this century.

Rhode Island at Providence; Creighton at Nebraska, Wisconsin at Marquette: : These are both three fierce rivalries with between Big East teams and their local state schools. Creighton and Providence should be favored in their match-ups but Marquette will likely be underdogs to Wisconsin. With Creighton having hopes of locking down a 1-seed they will have the expectation of winning on their rivals court against Fred Hoiberg's fresh roster, following a very rough first year. Rhode Island's head coach, David Cox, is looking to return the Rams to the NCAA Tournament after replacing Dan Hurley in 2018 while Providence will believe they have as good of a shot at winning the Big East as anyone. Marquette will have a hole to fill in the roster without Markus Howard

Four Sneaky Good Games

North Carolina at Hawaii: North Carolina has a tradition of playing a pit-stop game as a prelude to playing in the Maui Invitational, visiting Hawaii, Long Beach State, UC Santa Barbara and once... Santa Clara. A road game after skipping 4 time zones may be a real test this season as Roy Williams tries to gain footing after last year's uninspiring campaign.

Old Dominion at Arkansas: Old Dominion has been one of the most consistent programs in the latest iteration of C-USA, however, after making the 2019 NCAA Tournament the Monarchs had to rebuild. Arkansas got off to a hot start last season under 1st-year coach Eric Musselman, but a five game losing streak in conference play put the Razorbacks on the bubble. If Old Dominion can claw back to its status quo they will give Arkansas a test with stout defense and a grinding tempo.

Rhode Island at Western Kentucky: From C-USA's most consistent team to most talented team. The Hilltoppers were able to finish tied for 2nd last season in C-USA in spite of losing pro-prospect Charles Bassey to injury early in December. With his return they will be favored to win C-USA while at the same time Rhode Island has their eyes set on winning the Atlantic 10. Both teams could find themselves in the NCAA tournament and winning this game could move either team up a seed-line.

North Carolina A&T at Iowa State: If any MEAC team is able to pull an upset at a power conference school this season it will be the Aggies. A mid-season coaching change rejuvenated the team, and their tempo. It has been feast or famine for the Cyclones under Steve Prohm, with three KenPom Top-20 seasons and two KenPom Sub-75 seasons. An Aggies win could signal second consecutive famine season for Iowa State.

Most Lopsided Games

Virginia at James Madison
UT-Martin at Ole Miss
Chicago State at Marquette
Chicago State at Iowa State
Alabama A&M at Iowa State

Flimsiest Schedule

No teams in June really fall into the flimsy schedule category, all the teams this month did a fair job of mixing in competitive games outside of exempt events and conference challenges. The exceptional challenge of this specific season will cause a spike in Non-D1 games, Old Dominion, for example, is playing their first Non-D1 home game this century.