Thursday, July 21, 2022

Early Season Event Bracket Predictions

Anticipated in the next week are the brackets for the ESPN operated and broadcasted multi-team exempt events. Eight of these events follow a standard 8-team, 3-round format. The line-up is usually highlighted by the Maui Invitational and the Battle 4 Atlantis, but this year the quinquennial (I looked this word up) tournaments honoring Nike figurehead Phil Knight join the fray of elite events. The other such events include the Myrtle Beach Invitational, Charleston Classic, ESPN Events Invitational at Disney World and the Diamondhead Invitational in Honolulu. 

Predictions for these tournaments were based off several factors, including favorable match-ups for presumed favorites, instigating rivalries and, in this active climate of conference realignment, keeping teams from the same conference on opposite sides of the bracket. 2023 preseason T-Ratings from Bart Torvik were used to classify the teams.

Charleston Classic

This event features a slew of teams from the Carolinas and Virginia but just one team cracking the Top 50 in preseason ratings, with Virginia Tech being at #22. This makes the Hokies the overwhelming favorite, likely earning them a favorable, and in-commonwealth, opponent in Old Dominion for round-one. 

On the other side of the bracket are three Palmetto State teams, the lowest ranked of which being from a power conference. A first-round match-up between form SoCon rivals Furman and Charleston will create an great atmosphere, with the game being played at Charleston's arena. The Gamecocks playing in the adjacent game will guarantee two games between teams from the host state, with either Furman or Charleston getting a shot at their SEC big brother.

Bracket Prediction

Virginia Tech vs. Old Dominion
Penn State vs. Davidson

Colorado State vs. South Carolina
Furman vs. Charleston

Myrtle Beach Invitational

This is another event with only one Top 50 team, however Loyola-Chicago is just on the outside at 51st, behind Texas A&M in 19th. This bracket is also complicated by joint A10 membership by Massachusetts and Loyola-Chicago, and a separate non-conference match-up between Texas A&M and Boise State. An Aggies-Ramblers final is what this bracket will lead towards, and match-ups against my, sigh, 49ers and the rebuilding Racers will help the odds of that happening.

 Bracket Prediction

Texas A&M vs. Charlotte
Colorado vs. Massachusetts

Boise State vs. Tulsa
Loyola-Chicago vs. Murray State

ESPN Events Invitational

The quality of this field would be on par with the premier events if not for the MAAC's token participant as tournament host, Siena, being ranked 329th entering the season. Six of the seven other teams are all in the Top 75, with Nebraska just missing out in 91st. The only limitation to this event is a non-conference game scheduled between Ole Miss and Memphis, splitting those teams in the bracket.

 Bracket Prediction

Memphis vs. Siena
Stanford vs. Seton Hall

Ole Miss vs. Florida State
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska

Diamondhead Invitational

This is a West Coast heavy field that is not brimming with a ton of quality, with 53rd ranked Washington State the early favorite. Aside from 67th ranked Utah State the remaining teams are between 132nd and 173rd. Rick Pitino's Iona Gaels always have the potential to make some noise while Hawaii's home court (and time zone) advantage could propel them far into the event.

Bracket Prediction

Washington State vs. Pepperdine
Hawaii vs. Seattle

Iona vs. SMU
Utah State vs. George Washington

Phil Knight Legacy

This is certainly an interesting field with two Top 5 teams, two teams outside the Top 250 and the remaining four all between 21st and 29th. Gonzaga and Duke will play what are essentially first round byes, I predict Duke to draw Oregon State as a move from the Deep State to keep a power conference win off Gonzaga's resume. A Gavitt Games match-up between Xavier and West Virginia should split these two teams to opposite sides of the bracket. There is no way to sort out the four middle teams that wouldn't create a compelling first round.

 Bracket Prediction

Gonzaga vs. Portland State
Xavier vs. Purdue

Florida vs. West Virginia
Duke vs. Oregon State

Phil Knight Invitational

The local representative in this Phil Knight tournament definitely has more bite than their cross-town rival. The Portland Pilots should be locks to face of against the 4th-ranked Tar Heels, but are good enough to give any of the participants trouble, especially in front of a home crowd. The bracket needs to split up Big East members Connecticut and Villanova, which slots in Iowa State as the first round opponent for the Wildcats in Kyle Neptune's first spotlight game at the helm. 

 Bracket Prediction

North Carolina vs. Portland
Michigan State vs. Connecticut

Oregon vs. Alabama
Villanova vs. Iowa State

Battle 4 Atlantis

The fields keep getting better as we go, with Butler at 101st taking on the role of caboose to this field. However, it would not shock anyone to see Thad Matta outplay that initial prediction. Kansas and Tennessee get split up to set-up a final round game between the two Rop-10 teams. And who could resist the urge to showcase a future Big Ten rivalry and pit some Mormons against some Catholics?

 Bracket Prediction

Tennessee vs. Butler
Dayton vs. BYU

USC vs. Wisconsin
Kansas vs. NC State

Maui Invitational

This year's Maui field lives up to this event's reputation, including three teams in the Top 15 and no team ranked lower than 89th, in rebuilding Louisville. Arkansas and Texas Tech share one side of a bracket, setting up a potential South West Conference throwback. On the other side of the bracket Arizona and San Diego State could meet in a celebration of West Coast hoops, but Creighton may have other ideas.

 Bracket Prediction

Arizona vs. Louisville
San Diego State vs. Creighton

Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati
Arkansas vs. Ohio State

Friday, July 15, 2022

Contract Duffle Bag: July 15th, 2022

Division 1 has started to show some signs of life with 10 schools having released their schedules this week and on top of that contract duffle bags keep popping up. Below is a list of game contract received in the last week:

Game: Cal State Fullerton vs. Pepperdine
Date: November 11th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series, Site of 1st game is TBD

Game: Princeton at UMBC
Date: November 14th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Cal State Fullerton at Pacific
Date: November 18th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Western Illinois at UT Rio Grande Valley
Date: November 21st, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game in-season Series

Game: Marist at Maryland-Eastern Shore
Date: November 22nd, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Lamar
Date: November 24th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Lamar at SMU
Date: November 27th, 2022
Terms:  $80,000 Guarantee

Game: Coppin State at UMBC
Date: November 30th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Lehigh at Maryland-Eastern Shore
Date: November 30th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Northern Illinois at Eastern Illinois
Date: November 30th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Maryland-Eastern Shore at Liberty
Date: December 2nd, 2022
Terms: $60,000 Guarantee

Game: UMBC at Lehigh
Date: December 3rd, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: UT Rio Grande Valley at Western Illinois
Date: December 3rd, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game in-season Series

Game: Brown at Rhode Island
Date: December 7th, 2022
Terms: Perpetual Series

Game: Maryland-Eastern Shore at George Mason
Date: December 6th, 2022
Terms: $65,000 Guarantee

Game: Ball State at Eastern Illinois
Date: December 7th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: UMBC at Loyola-Maryland
Date: December 13th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Maryland-Eastern Shore at Columbia
Date: December 28th, 2022
Terms: $25,000 Guarantee    


Thursday, July 7, 2022

Contract Duffle Bag: July 8th, 2022

The first sign that the 2020-21 season would not go as planned was at the slow pace at which teams released their non-conference schedules. However, this rate appears to the new norm as the quantity of released schedules thru early July remains in single-digits, while from 2014-2019 that total was between 38 and 64. The most likely factor to this could be the growing divide, financially, between the power conferences and the rest of the division. This gap is on full display in conference realignment tug of war being played out the last two summers. Behind the scenes it is playing out differently as more and more teams find themselves looking to collect guarantee checks rather than writing them.

While complete schedules are few and far between, the non-conference canvas is still being pieced together, and somehow these contracts keep finding their way into my duffle bag.

Below are a collection of contracts received in the last couple of weeks:

Game: Eastern Illinois at Illinois
Date: November 7th, 2022
Terms: $100,000 Guarantee

Game: Alabama A&M at Illinois
Date: December 17th, 2022
Terms: $92,500 Guarantee

Game: Bethune-Cookman at Illinois
Date: December 29th, 2022
Terms: $95,000 Guarantee

Game: Tarleton State at Arizona State
Date: November 7th, 2022
Terms: $80,000 Guarantee

Game: Weber State at Tarleton State 
Date: November 29th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Maryland-Eastern Shore at Charlotte
Date: November 14th, 2022
Terms: $60,000 Guarantee

Game: Presbyterian at Charlotte
Date: November 26th, 2022
Terms: $65,000 Guarantee

Game: Appalachian State at Charlotte
Date: December 2nd, 2022
Terms: 4th game of 4-game series

Game: Navy at William & Mary
Date: November 7th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2 Game Series

Game: William & Mary at Old Dominion
Date: December 7th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 4-Game Series

Game: William & Mary at UMBC
Date: December 18th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Montana at Southern Miss
Date: November 29th, 2022
Terms: Return game for MTE participation

Game: Maryland-Eastern Shore at Old Dominion
Date: November 7th, 2022
Terms: $70,000 Guarantee

Game: East Carolina at Old Dominion
Date: November 26th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Old Dominion at Charleston
Date: November 29th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Valparaiso at Toledo
Date: November 7th, 2022
Terms: 2nd game of 2-Game Series

Game: Toledo at George Mason
Date: December 3rd, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Toledo at Marshall
Date: December 17th, 2022
Terms: 3rd game of 4-Game Series

Game: Toledo at Vermont
Date: December 20th, 2022
Terms: 1st game of 2-Game Series

Game: Alcorn State at Stephen F. Austin
Date: November 15th, 2022
Terms: $48,000 Guarantee

Game: Jackson State at Stephen F. Austin
Date: December 2nd, 2022
Terms: $50,000 Guarantee

Charlotte Coaching Search Power Rankings (New Year's Edition)

Happy New Year! As the calendar rolls over into 2024 it would be best to forget about the run of results the Niners registered in December. ...