Charlotte Coaching Search Power Rankings (New Year's Edition)

Happy New Year! As the calendar rolls over into 2024 it would be best to forget about the run of results the Niners registered in December. What must be addressed first is the thrilling win over Florida Atlantic this past weekend, the best moments experienced in Halton Arena since toppling Temple at the apex of the 2009-10 season. We'll discuss more of what this means when discussing Aaron Fearne's candidacy later, but I hope every Niner fan in Halton or watching from afar got to enjoy that rare taste of pure joy. Now to the rankings:

#1- Mark Byington (James Madison)

James Madison suffered their first loss of the season on Saturday. The loss came on the road to Southern Miss (a trap which has snagged the Niners on more than one occasion). The Dukes shot only 11.8% (2/17) from 3-point range, their lowest output all season by 11%, while sending Southern Miss to the line 33 times, a bad combination for winning on the road. James Madison remains favored in all but one game in the regular season, with a projected 14-4 Sun Belt record. With the road win at Michigan State as their lone KenPom Top 75 win the Dukes will still be depending on winning the Sun Belt Conference Tournament in order to earn an NCAA Tournament bid.

#2- Josh Schertz (Indiana State)

Schertz's third season at Indiana State has been a revelation, as he has the Sycamore's just outside the KenPom Top 50 and can become almost insurmountable favorites to win the Missouri Valley Conference if Indiana State can manage a road win against their closest challenger, Drake, on Wednesday. Schertz spend the early portion of his career with Bart Lundy at Queens and High Point before becoming head coach at D2 Lincoln Memorial (TN). In 13 seasons his team made ten Division 2 NCAA Tournaments, advancing to the Final Four three times which includes one appearance in the Championship game. Lincoln Memorial was also a 1-seed in the cancelled 2020 edition of the tournament.

#3 Alan Huss (High Point)

There is a new disruptor on the list, rookie coach Alan Huss from High Point. Huss spend 10 years coaching high school and prep school basketball until joining Craig Neal's New Mexico staff in 2014. After Neal was fired in 2017 Huss landed at his alma mater, Creighton, working under Greg McDermott until being hired by High Point last spring. The Panthers dropped their first two D1 games to Wofford and Queens while finding their footing, but have since won 11 of 13 D1 games including wins over other coaches featured on this list (Justin Gray- Western Carolina, Mike Jones- UNC Greensboro). 

High Point entered the season with a preseason ranking of 282nd and have since climbed up to 120th, in the same tier of teams as Charlotte. Huss has orchestrated this while being 330th in minutes continuity. Huss might be leading one of the most remarkable one-season turnarounds in a long time. With limited openings in power conference jobs and a crowded group of mid-major coaches eager to fill him, snagging a coach like Huss could be an under the radar coup for Mike Hill.

#4- Aaron Fearne (Charlotte)

December gave Fearne chances to firm up the likelihood of retaining his position. While the game at Duke was always going to be a reach to get anything from, the rest of the schedule was filled with winnable games. Charlotte was able to build double-digit leads in those games against Stetson, Richmond and Davidson but all three ended in defeat for the Niners. Opening the AAC season with a loss at SMU was not unexpected, but in all honesty the first draft of these rankings Fearne was listed as not ranked. Then Saturday happened. 

Charlotte raced out to a 12-2 lead over #17 Florida Atlantic and then controlled the game with ease through the first-half.  Charlotte's excellent 3-point shooting (5/11, 45.5%) and interior defense kept Florida Atlantic from making any runs in spite of the Niners committing eight turnovers. Charlotte went into the break leading by 41-26, and stretched their lead to 17 when an Isaiah Folkes lay-up made the score 45-28 two minutes into the second-half. The Owls then capitalized on Charlotte's tendency to lose control of leads reared it's ugly head, going on a 25-8 run to level the score at 53 with 6:29 left. 

Charlotte wasn't ready to give up, and after traded baskets with Florida Atlantic down the stretch (highlighted by an incredible dunk by Igor Milicic), but the contest remained deadlocked at 63 points going into the final 90 seconds of the game. 

Charlotte's 3-point shooting had gone dry in the second-half, but that didn't matter when Lu'Cye Patterson (aka Lu'Cye Daggerson) broke the deadlock with precision from deep leaving Florida Atlantic chasing the game going into the final minute. One possession later Patterson was called upon once more to extend the lead back to three with a baseline runner with 20 seconds left. Johnell Davis wasn't done yet and struck with a long distance 3-pointer to tie the game again with 14 seconds left.

Patterson would have the final say, as he drew a foul on an elbow jumper in with under 2 seconds left. Lu'cye would calmly knock down two free throws before Florida Atlantic would miss a prayer at the buzzer. Just like that, Charlotte had it's first win over a ranked team since defeating Michigan to win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off in 2013.

What does it mean? Fearne is back on the menu as the victory over Florida Atlanta nudge the door back open for Fearne. There are still several hurdles between now and March (for instance, winning a road game) before Niner Nation and Mike Hill should be convinced he's the right man for the job. The Niners are favored in 12 of their remaining 16 games (per Torvik) with the easiest AAC schedule and 2 of the 3 toughest games in the rearview mirror. Breaking into the Top Four is a tangible and achievable goal for Fearne in order to be a part of the conversation.

#5- Dustin Kerns (Appalachian State)

Kerns has slowly but steadily built App State into a Sun Belt contender. If not for the incredible season James Madison is having then App State would be the favorites to win the Sun Belt. Kearns took the Mountaineers to the play-in round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament with what has been his lowest ranked team by advanced metrics in his five seasons at App State. Kerns success this season is built upon defense, with the 68th ranked defense per KenPom. When Auburn visited Boone in December the Mountaineers held on for the flagship win (credit to Bruce Pearl for continuing to play these games). In 26 years of KenPom data App State did not have any wins higher than 40th in KenPom, so the win over Auburn (currently 5th) might just end up being the best win in program history for a long time. The Mountaineers do however have a handful of stumbles, losses to Northern Illinois, Oregon State, UNC Asheville and most recently Troy will make building a resume around the Auburn win very difficult. After five years, Kerns may be ready for a move and has shown that he should be on Charlotte's list.

#NR- Will Wade (McNeese State)

It may have been a bit ambitious to list Wade in the last edition. After delving into the particulars of his contract it turns out Wade has a $1 Million buyout. While Charlotte should be able to offer a competitive salary, committing that sum to a buyout would have an impact on the salary ceiling for the head coach and their assistant pool. It's clear that Wade's intention, by agreeing to these figures, is to make an instant jump into high-major basketball which, unfortunately for the Niners, includes bypassing a program like Charlotte.

Charlotte Coaching Search Power Rankings (Preseason)

Entering the season with an interim coach gives Charlotte supporters an interesting perspective, as we're essentially beginning the season amidst an active coaching search. A lot of names were tossed around in June after the resignation of Ron Sanchez, but ultimately the timing of his departure locked our fate into a season with an interim coach the moment he resigned. 

Charlotte's financial and NIL situations were scapegoats for the coaching search coming up dry, and  there is certainly a need for improvement on both of those fronts. However, the opportunity to spectate a program like West Virginia go through the same process and end with the same result offered some consolation to Charlotte's situation. Mike Hill is certainly not above criticism over his hiring tactics for Charlotte's two main sports, but the coaching search going the way it did shows that he had a well placed insistence on hiring a turnkey solution, meaning a head coach with meaningful experience and success. These rankings will be updated periodically as the season progresses based on how the coaches on our radar perform.

#1- Aaron Fearne (Charlotte)

Coach Fearne enters the season with the Charlotte job being his to lose. What exactly is the bar that must be cleared to win it? It's very hard to nail down but it should be obvious to everyone if and when it is cleared, much like with Rodney Terry at Texas last year. Certain benchmarks could make it clear: A deep run in the AAC Tournament or an invite to the NIT would show an ability to get the most out of a roster which has not been seen here for a long time. If there is a threat that Coach Fearne could be hired away to a peer program come March, that would be the clearest sign that Fearne is it.

#2- Bob Richey (Furman)

Richey's sustained level of success at Furman will have him at the top of a lot of lists by the time the season ends, and should be at the top of Charlotte's as well. Whether or not his next move is to a level beyond Charlotte is not yet written, but if any power conference program in the Southeast decided to move on from their coach I would imagine that Richey's agent would be one of the first to receive a phone call. No one would blame him for leaping to the ACC or SEC over Charlotte in that scenario.

#3- Mark Byington (James Madison)

Coach Byington is on the second stop of his career, and led James Madison to a 12-6 record their first season in the Sun Belt. Prior to coaching the Dukes, Byington spent seven years at Georgia Southern where he reached 20 wins four times and 10+ conference wins his last six seasons in charge. At only 47 years old he still has a lot of his career in front of him. He's an example of a coach that's already been rewarded for his display in the head coaching chair, and would bring that motivation to Charlotte. 

Note: This was written before James Madison's opening victory over Michigan State.

#4- Mike Morell (UNC Asheville)

Morell is coming off the first NCAA Tournament appearance in his young career. He rebuilt the Bulldogs from scratch following the departure of Nick McDevitt and showed clear improvement of quality in each year of his career, per KenPom rankings (347th > 302nd > 244th > 209th > 148th). Morell worked with Shaka Smart at VCU and Texas prior to becoming a head coach. His experience on the sidelines of programs at multiple levels of the sport, and geographic experience in North Carolina are both assets that could be used at Charlotte.

#5- Matt Langel (Colgate)

Langel is an outsider that we, and Mike Hill, need to keep our eyes on. The 45-year old is beginning his 13th season as a head coach, all of them at Colgate. He has led the Raiders to 23 or more wins four of the last five seasons, the only blemish being the 2020-21 season in which Colgate only played 16 games (going 14-2 and making the NCAA Tournament). Colgate has also represented the Patriot League in four of the last five tournaments, and would have been an NIT Auto-Bid in 2020 had the postseason not been cancelled. Langel is a 2000 Penn graduate, and was an assistant to Fran Dunphy at both Penn and Temple. Having been looked over for the Temple job a second time in spite of his success could motivate him to take a job in the Owls conference.

Retread Watch

#1- Mark Turgeon

Turgeon should be the highest priority retread candidate. He has sat through a couple of coaching cycles without being called back up to a Power 5 opening, which is on Charlotte's side in as much that he may need to take a job outside of that realm to get back into coaching. What puts Turgeon at the top of my retread list is he has seen success outside of the Power 5, having taken Wichita State to the 2006 Sweet Sixteen. While, admittedly, he fell short of expectations placed upon him at Maryland, his Terrapins were ranked 52nd or better in 9 of his 10 seasons as head coach. Coach Turgeon also made the NCAA Tournament all four of his seasons at Texas A&M.

#2- Chris Mack

Coach Mack has proven to be a coach worthy of our attention, the only checkmark he lacks which we are in need of is "program builder". He took over high quality programs at Xavier and Louisville and did a fantastic job of maintaining the high standards set by previous coaches. His tenure at Louisville unraveled due to scandal but the fall-off following his departure certainly cements the influence he can have over a program. Like with Bob Richey, Coach Mack will likely get offers from programs higher up the pecking order than Charlotte. The West Virginia job seems perfect for him, having spent his whole career in the Ohio River Valley. I was quite surprised Coach Mack didn't end up at West Virginia this summer. However, the transfer portal being closed would have hand-cuffed him this season, keeping a rebuilding season with minimal control off of his CV may have motivated him to sit out another year.

#3- Tom Crean

I really hope this is the only time his name shows up here.

#4- Stay tuned.

There are several retreads that Charlotte should welcome with open arms if the opportunity presents itself. Success outside of the Power 5 would be a great indicator for success at Charlotte. No one should be overlooked because expectations were not met at a program in a conference on a different financial plateau.